Betting short priced favourites quotes
Any punter trapped in such a devastating sequence of losses would require a large bank and a bigger heart to survive. Long runs of cuts for favourites are not as rare as you might think. Most professionals estimate that 40 per cent of all favourites are 'false favs'-and that means a lot of sucker money is going to be pulled into backing them, when the true odds suggest they should be at much longer prices.
Even if you got 30 winners from every bets, you would need to be averaging 2. Statistics show you would be very lucky to achieve this average price. If you could eliminate the vast majority of the false favourites you would then reduce your losing bets.
If we accept that 40 per cent of favourites are 'false' and could find them before the race, we would then be in a position of striking 30 winners from every 60 bets-a tremendous 50 per cent average! In such circumstances, a flat bet on every favourite-and assuming an average price of 2. This all sounds tremendous in theory but how is it possible for the average punter to eliminate the false favourites?
How does he isolate them and have the courage to not bet on them? Most punters will run into plenty of strife trying to answer these questions. Even professional punters err in this regard. The average punter eventually gives up and backs just about every favourite going. And loses. There is no mechanical way to help a punter decide if a favourite is fully entitled to its position in the betting. What we can do, however, is take a searching look at some ways of avoiding jumping into the deep end without testing the water.
A plan along these lines could take in things like price, jockey, barrier, track conditions, recent form, class, distance etc. JOCKEY: On metropolitan tracks, discard favourites that are not ridden by firstclass jockeys, or excellent apprentices able to make use of their weight allowance. The form of many horses reveals their best tracks. GOING: If you intend taking a short quote about a favourite you really must be able to know per cent that it can handle the track conditions. There are many false favourites because attention is not paid to this vital point, particularly in winter.
A horse may finish brilliantly to win over m but that doesn't mean it can win over m. Make sure that a favourite under consideration is suited to the distance of the race. No matter what you hear at certain times, statistics show that inside barriers are best at most tracks with turns. Bear that in mind. FORM: Favourites must have form for the job in hand.
Too many horses are made favourites on the strength of good trackwork and 'boom' newspaper headlines. Few live up to expectations. Improvers can always go on to better things, but a study of form shows that often a galloper with a poor background is stepped up in class following an easy win in weaker class, and because of the 'boom' on him will be expected by many to perform the impossible.
Unless you are sure they are improvers, don't back favourites when they are racing in a Class in which they have yet to show good form. A plan drawn up along these lines would mean you would only be backing strong favourites. I am confident you would be able to dramatically improve your winning percentage.
An example is this: A horse turns in a very smart performance when at good odds, and apparently not well backed. Next start, he is asked to carry more weight and is at short odds in the market. It's been my experience that these horses rarely win.
They are just false favourites. A professional punter I know continually updates detailed research into favourites. His research concentrates on discovering what type of race produces the highest winning percentage of favourites. You can understand the logic behind this obsession.
Some races do throw up more winning favourites than others. Early two-year-old races produce a high percentage of winning favourites. These are 2yo. Things unravelled fast, and many deemed the Coalition unelectable. Meanwhile, Labor sat back quietly observing the self-destruction. Consequently, the big bets began to roll in for a Labor win, and its odds tightened with the bookies. Such a trend can often become self-fulfilling, as the prospect of a Labor win attracted more punters chasing seemingly easy money but requiring bigger wagers at short odds for a half decent payout.
But as the dollar quotes became steadily more lopsided, did the true probabilities shift in tandem? Probably not a lot. Because with the Coalition already at a low base, the probability of them winning surely could not have become much worse, and therefore Labor not much better. In fact to the contrary, things began to slowly turn. And Morrison began to display his campaigning skills that had largely been unseen by the electorate.
He and his party effectively began to make inroads, slowly willing themselves back into the contest. Which was within the margin of error. But the sheer weight of money for a Labor win could not move its short quote. In the end, there simply was not enough money to correct the bias in the win pool. Noting also that punters were unlikely to be representative of the electorate, ensuring persistent bias.
The thing is in politics, true probabilities can move with sentiment fast, but the betting markets may not have the scope to adjust. Probabilities can be indicative when markets open, but as we have seen, events can quickly cause a disconnect between true and implied probabilities. Interestingly, we saw similar results with Donald Trump winning at long odds in the US in Even though it was revealed later that there were far more individual bets on Leave than Remain, which proved prophetic in hindsight.
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Over 2. Ok, stats look impressive. Real won all their 5 games and scored 4 goals in each of their last 4. Villarreal are struggling a bit recently. Make sure you that you use trading software, because it makes trading a lot easier! The next step for this method is to LAY off our scores as Real score… It will depend how quickly and how many. Preferably when you reach your profit target. Possible scenarios: It will all depend how quickly we get to see goals in this match.
At this pace this game could finish , … At this stage I am making a decision to close my trades and lay both the scores for some profit, as another goal could complicate things a little. If I waited until HT to trade off my bets, I could sell approximately 3. What do you do when Real take the lead in the 6th minute?
The odds from 7. In the next 5 minutes the price steams to 7 and the goal in 11th minute makes it Till half time, as the score stays , the odds steadily drop to its starting price. And it has to go down further as the game progresses and the score stays So something like this may be tricky… But you can always spread your stake and back more scores i.
Real Madrid vs Lyon Real were priced at about 1. Using the same approach, analyse the match and decide which scores you wish to back. What is the potential of this method? But what if you wanted to wait longer? Some say yes, some say no and some say both. But there are some key lessons: Betting on the favourite is rarely a bad bet Shorter priced favourites are often better value than longer priced ones You need to do some work of your own What various academic and recreational research from bettors has found is betting on favourites generally allows you to lose more slowly.
As a starting point, losing at a slow rate is a damn sight better than most punters manage. But losses to those teams are extremely rare. The All Blacks are perennial favourites. The Springboks had similar stats to New Zealand, having only lost internationals to 8 teams in their history. The loss to the minnows of Japan was the biggest shock of the tournament, but it should be seen as an exception and not the rule. There were warning signs including an improving Japanese side a South African side that lost all three of its games in the Rugby Championship including at home to Argentina.
In other words odds-on to win. Pretty good.