Bbsw ois spread definition in betting
Mr Read says this encompasses a few things, but all argue against an immediate rate cut. What does history say Straight off the bat, the election campaign shouldn't make a scintilla of difference to a central bank proud of its independence. There are enough precedents in recent political history to suggest if the RBA wants to move, it will.
During the campaign in November it raised rates a notch a fortnight before the election which saw the defeat of the Howard government. Two more hikes would follow soon after before a mad scramble to slash the cash rate as the GFC hit.
It wasn't the RBA's greatest call. Back in , the RBA cut rates a month before the election and the Howard government was returned. Mr Kennedy, of JP Morgan, says inflation now is reminiscent of the May meeting, when an unexpected drop in core inflation prompted the RBA to cut rates. He argues the mix of inflation is the key, given fuel prices fell sharply in both periods, while education, pharmaceutical and travel were all soft.
People will talk about demographics, supply, demand but I don't buy any of that. LIBOR has been driven higher by increased US treasury bill issuance and tax changes that have led to a repatriation of US dollars out of short-term funds. The Aviva AIMS fixed income fund which takes unconstrained bets in fixed income market was also shorting the Australian dollar versus the US dollar, which was particularly attractive given short-term US rates were now higher than Australian rates.
It's the first time in my career that that has happened. The combination of a positive carry on a short Australian dollar position, the impact of a China slow-down would force the currency lower, but he said if there was an issue for the banks you would see "record lows". Mr McAlevey also warned of dangerously high exposure of Australian investors to the banks that dominate both equity and bond indices which are in turn linked the health of the housing market.
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