Perfect bracket
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If we treated the odds for each game as a coin flip, that makes the odds of picking all 63 games correctly 1 in 9. How crazy are 1 in 9. Let's do another visual experiment. Here is a picture of one dot: Missed it? No worries, we'll help you out. It's inside the circle. Okay, now let's take a look at one million of those dots: Definitely easier to see.
But we still have a long way to go. Now imagine a new picture where each one of those dots in the picture above contained one million dots itself. One million million dots. Also known as a trillion. We'd need 9. Not impressed yet? A group of researchers at the University of Hawaii estimated that there are 7.
If we were to pick one of those at random, and then give you one chance to guess which of the 7. These numbers are way too large to fully wrap your head around, but here are a handful of other statistics for reference, compared to 9. There are There have been 5 trillion days since the Big Bang, so repeat the entire history of our universe 1. As of , the best estimates for the number of trees on the planet was three trillion. Imagine that there was one single acorn hidden in one of those three trillion trees, and you were tasked with finding it on the first guess.
Your odds of success are approximately three million times greater than picking a perfect bracket. Others have tried to refine the rough estimate. Georgia Tech professor Joel Sokol that's him above has worked for years on a statistical model to predict college basketball games, and he says that the best models we have today are only right three quarters of the time, at best.
Which is partly what makes people think that about a quarter of tournament games are upsets. Much, much better than 1 in 9. So high that Sokol doesn't believe it will ever happen. Even with So close. Speaking of Bracket Challenge Game users, we can use that data to get another estimate on the odds of a perfect bracket. We have the pick history for millions of players over the past five years.
Finally, a double-elimination format is used by most college basketball teams. It takes nine rounds to finish the tournament. How many bracket combinations are there? Almost many bracket pools ignore these games and only allow participants to select from the first round, when only 64 teams remain. As a result, a typical NCAA tournament bracket has 63 games. As a result, there are potential outcomes for a bracket, or 9,,,,,, This equates to 9.
A quintillion is 10 to the power of Almost all other brackets have some variation on this theme, usually including at least some second-round games. The most common variation is to include all first-round games in a single-elimination event. Including only those brackets that survive to the second round cuts the number of possible outcomes down to about 14,,,,,, That's still a large number, but it's much more manageable than 9 quadrillion. These are just the possible outcomes for a single round of the tournament.
To account for multiple-game rounds the total number of possible outcomes increases dramatically. After the first 32 games of the competition, 15 of them were flawless. A bracket is "perfect" when there are no seeds higher than 1 and no teams with byes in any round. There have been two previous occasions where this has happened: and In both years, the National Collegiate Athletic Association NCAA basketball tournament was played over four days, with all first-round games being held on Thursday evening.
The first team to achieve this feat was the Loyola Ramblers, who went undefeated during the season to win the national championship. The last team to do it was the Syracuse Orange in A perfect bracket does not guarantee a winner, as several recent events have shown.
But if it does happen, it would be a very exciting finish to the most popular sporting event in the world. About Article Author Stephen Cliff is an avid sports fan and player. He loves reading about sports history as well as writing about them himself. Stephen has been playing tennis since high school and he also enjoys soccer, basketball, and volleyball.
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The longest (verified) perfect NCAA tournament bracket
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