Factory forex news calendar
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Factory forex news calendar bitcoin prediction 10 years
How To Tell If News Will Be Positive Or Negative (Forex)Be. decentralized crypto currency list suggest
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As a trader, while technical analysis might be the primary way to trade the markets, it is also important that traders keep an eye on the fundamentals. This is because it is the fundamental events that form the basis for driving price action. To put this in another way, technical analysis is the method of predicting future price based on past price history. Fundamental analysis on the other hand explains the factors behind driving the prices.
True, sometimes, price action can be erratic. For example, you might have come across times when some good economic releases end up with price turning bearish. This is nothing but a mix of the fundamentals and the technicals. When looking at an economic calendar, the main thing to remember is that the price chart you see discounts all the prevailing news. When there is a surprise in the market, or in other words when prices does not discount the news, that is where you get the strong market movements.
Therefore, as a trader it is always in your best interests to keep an eye on the economic events that are scheduled. Before we get into the details, there are a few things to understand first. What is an economic event? An economic event in the context of the currency markets is a scheduled news release that will have an impact of the currency.
The economic event could be a news report such as measuring inflation or unemployment rate. This is nothing but fundamental economic data that is released by almost every country. The economic report basically states the health of the economy. There are basically two types of economic events.
Scheduled economic events are those which follow a preset calendar schedule. For example the GDP report for the quarter is released a few weeks after the end of the quarter. Likewise, a monthly unemployment report is released during the first Friday of the month for the previous month. Unscheduled economic events are those that are not scheduled but are formed depending on the market developments. For example, a major crisis could trigger a central bank governor to make a statement.
Or snap elections which plays a major role in the currency markets also qualifies as an unscheduled economic event. Between the above two types, the unscheduled economic events have a larger impact than compared to the high impact scheduled economic events. When an economy is doing good and is steadily expanding with inflation staying stable, the central bank can afford to hike interest rates.
When interest rates are higher, relative to another economy and thereby its currency, investors flock to the currency which offers higher interest rates. Of course, it is not just interest rates that determine the performance of the currency.
Other factors such as economic and political stability also play a major role. An important thing to understand is that the markets are always forward looking. Therefore, there is a good chance that price will foretell what the economic outlook is going to be. Sometimes, a currency can appreciate even when the interest rates are low. This happens when a central bank engages in stimulus programs in order to boost its economy.
Economic events are the cornerstones for news trading. This is a strategy where traders trade only around news releases. New releases create a lot of volatility and you can make quite some profits. What is a forex economic calendar? Now that you know what an economic event is, the next thing to look at is what is a forex economic calendar. For those of you who have traded stocks, you would know that the equity markets also has a calendar known as the earnings calendar.
The earnings calendar basically tells you when a company will be reporting on its earnings and so on. Likewise, a forex economic calendar is a calendar of scheduled events which shows which economy will be releasing what type of data. When you combine the information from the economic event based on the forex economic calendar, you can get a better view of the markets. As mentioned earlier that the markets are forward looking, you will almost always find that the price action you see potentially reflects what is going to happen.
Therefore, it is not surprising to note that sometimes ahead of high impact news releases such as monetary policy decisions, the currency can rally or decline. This happens because the markets are looking forward to the economic release and have a preset expectation in mind. When you have a strong set of economic data such as good GDP and unemployment figures, there is a good chance that the central banks will be hiking interest rates.
As such, ahead of the central bank decision, the markets already have a fair idea of what the central bank will do. A forex economic calendar will show this in what is called the market expectations. But remember that the markets are not always right. Therefore, while price can rally into a major event, a disappointing news release could easily pull the currency lower. By the end of this article you should be able to build your own economic calendar in terms of personalization and be able to better read news releases.
How to use the Forex factory economic calendar Below is a screenshot from the ForexFactory. Forexfactory economic calendar The economic calendar can be found on the main page of the forum. There is a lot of customization that you can make. Of course, the personalization of the economic calendar can be made when you register for a free account. The calendar sits on the second section of the website, just above the start of the forum threads.
The calendar is divided into nine columns. Hence, it is all about interpreting the economic news. For a currency, it is all about the interest rate level. Hence, the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement and press conferences move the dollar.
And, the Forex market. The Fed meets every six weeks. This is a text describing the monetary policy. Once a quarter, or every two sessions, a press conference follows the FOMC statement. Never has the Fed hiked or cut the federal funds rate without a press conference to follow. Therefore, the federal funds interest rate level is THE Forex news to watch.
As a rule of thumb, the higher the interest rate goes, the stronger the dollar becomes. The Forex market volatility increases tremendously during the Fed presser. Press representatives from around the world ask questions. No one knows the questions. And, no one knows what the answer will be too. As such, the USD makes large swings all over the charts.
Effectively, it trips stops both for longs and for shorts. It is one of the closely watched Forex news. The market reaches extreme Forex volatility levels if the CPI deviates from the target. Traders know the Fed closely watches inflation. Part of its mandate, the Fed targets a two percent level for the CPI. Instead, it considers the Core CPI.
Or, inflation without transportation, energy and food costs. The standard interpretation is that when inflation falls, the currency depreciates. When inflation is in the fall, expectations grow that the Fed will ease the monetary policy. After all, trading is a game of expectations. However, if deviates strongly, the Forex volatility spikes as traders bet the Fed will react. More exactly, with the lack of it. In this relation, levels of 1. Higher inflation levels lead to the central bank raising rates.
Contrary, lower inflation results in the central bank cutting rates. Higher rates mean a higher currency, while lower rates are bearish for a currency. It is clear now why inflation is so important for the central banks. Hence, it is one of the most important Forex fundamental analysis indicators. The end of October saw the inflation in the Eurozone unexpectedly falling. As per the economic calendar, the expected or forecasted value was 1. However, the actual number came at 0.
Hence, market participants started to sell the Euro in a frenzy. Because part of the fundamental analysis of Forex market is to trade expectations. In this case, based on the inflation data, expectations grew that the central bank will cut rates at the next meeting. Cutting rates are bearish for a currency and sellers step in. So they did, as the chart above shows.
The next ECB meeting was after two weeks and traders sold the Euro on rate cut speculations. This is how the economic calendar Forex influences trading decisions. For the next two weeks, all Euro pairs suffered across the dashboard. No other news part of any economic calendars mattered anymore. The ECB did deliver.
However, the lows in that day turned out to be the lows for a long period ahead. The explanation comes from the press conference. A press conference follows forty-five minutes after every ECB meeting. The President reads the statement, and press representatives ask questions. However, he added that the ECB expects inflation to pick up next year.
Because of that message, traders focused, yet again, on expectations. So, bullish for the U.